Même vieux merde

Arnaud Montebourg

Today Arnaud Montebourg announced his candidacy for president of France.

The election will be in May 2017.

Montebourg will face incumbent President François Hollande, who is radically anti-worker and pro-austerity.

Montebourg resigned as Minister of Industry in 2014 to protest Hollande’s radical neoliberalism.

He says that as President, his project will include measures to end austerity, reduce taxes, and increase spending. (Hollande told the same lies when he was running for the presidency.) Montebourg also says he will fight globalization and restructure the European Union. (As though one politician could change the entire EU.)

Can Montebourg be believed?

Absolutely not.

Look at France’s trade deficit…


What this chart means is that each month since October 2015, France has gone (on average) over a billion euros further into debt. Each month. Or, if France is not borrowing that money, then each month (on average) over a billion more euros flows out of France than flows into France. Each month.

Either way, the French economy is dead, and is becoming worse all the time. France will eventually become Greece. This is mathematically unavoidable as long as France continues to use the euro.

However the gap between the rich and the rest will continue to widen in France, which is the whole reason for the euro. The worse the French economy becomes, the more that workers must submit to ever-lower wages with no benefits. This means higher profits for the corporate owners.

If Montebourg is elected president on an anti-austerity ticket, he will become even more pro-austerity than was his predecessor, Hollande. Again, this is mathematically unavoidable.

Does Montebourg have a chance to be elected? Yes. He will be France’s Hillary. Hollande is hugely unpopular. The bankers will install Montebourg because he makes progressive noises, but in fiscal matters he will be fanatically right-wing, whether he wants to be or not. The French corporate media outlets will tell the French masses to vote for the radically right-wing Montebourg in order to keep out the “far right” National Front, led by Marine Le Pen.

The French masses will fall for this ruse, like they always do.

Then, having stupidly screwed themselves (as they always do) they will walk around in tee shirts:


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